Where Do The Liberals Go From Here?

Political pundits are rarely at a loss for words. Yesterday’s unprecedented events in Ottawa could strike one dumb.  But we will take a stab, political knifing being in season, at saying something.

A Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister who, by her own admission, had lost the confidence of her Prime Minister, has resigned. But she has not gone quietly, as is the tradition in these matters. Instead, in a biting resignation letter, the now back-bench MP slams the door behind her, accusing the Prime Minister of being unserious in the face of a mounting existential challenge from the election of Donald Trump. Never mind that the “political gimmicks” she decries for distracting her government from addressing our challenges were developed and announced on her devoted watch. We may never know the full reasons for the falling out between the Prime Minister and his most senior Minister. Nonetheless, on her way out, Freeland framed a narrative that put her in the best light – expressing that she will not be part of a government that she believes is putting self interest above country.  Extraordinary.

Freeland says in sum, that the Emperor has no clothes, clothes in this case being a plan to address the serious challenges we face. Bravo and what many have been waiting to hear. One wonders after years of being his closest elected confidant and years in the most serious portfolios (Global Affairs, then Finance), whether she knew this all along, but stayed put hoping it was the best path to becoming Leader one day. Or did something specific happen? Regardless, we are where we are.

Losing one Finance Minister (Bill Morneau) is bad. Losing two is quite extraordinary. There will be repercussions in the financial markets and gleeful assessments of weakness and disarray from (we can’t believe we are saying this) Canada’s enemies in the United States.

There is no precedent in Canadian politics for what just happened. But there is precedent in Great Britain – Churchill’s break with Chamberlain after Chamberlain’s 1938 meeting with Hitler in Munich.  Churchill left the Government and ended up as Party Leader and Prime Minister in very short order.

Where do we go from here? The Liberal Party and Liberal Government are in shambles. There is a new Finance Minister – the PM’s life-long chum, Dominic LeBlanc. There are likely to be more departures (the loss of Minister of Housing Sean Fraser is unfortunate) as well as promotions, as yet unknown, from a shrinking contingent of scared incumbent MPs.

Parliament, which has been paralyzed for weeks, adjourns today for the Christmas break until the end of January. This will give the Liberals time to recharge (really?) and steady themselves, if that’s possible.  Policy initiatives, including those in the Fall Economic Statement just tabled will be subsumed in the on-going drama. On January 20, if you take Trump at his word, Canada will be severely tested. Many Canadians would be justified in the worry that their Government is not up to the challenge. An election, there must be one by next Fall, would clear the air.  But next Fall is a long way off and our challenges with the US won’t wait until then.

How did it end up this way for the Liberals – from “sunny ways” in 2015 to chaos in 2024?  It is ever thus.  Governments exhaust themselves and they exhaust the public. But the stakes have never been this high.  So, Canadians should hope that the Liberals under Justin Trudeau or some new Leader (???) can smarten up and toughen up – and fast. Or that they get out of the way.

Related Blog Posts

PM Carney’s Cabinet: Purpose Built For A Hinge Moment

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced his first Cabinet on Tuesday (if you don’t count the caretaker Cabinet he appointed after assuming the leadership of the…

Read More >: PM Carney’s Cabinet: Purpose Built For A Hinge Moment

Federal Election 2025: Our Analysis

We Won (Barry Campbell) What Happened? In the years leading up to the current Federal election, there has been increasing concern about covert foreign election…

Read More >: Federal Election 2025: Our Analysis

A New Liberal Leader. A Perilous Time. The Federal Election to Come.

With a new Liberal Leader in place and Parliament on the verge of resuming, a Federal election will soon be upon us. In that contest…

Read More >: A New Liberal Leader. A Perilous Time. The Federal Election to Come.

(US) Buyers Beware: Canada’s New Economic Security Screen Will Keep out Predatory Acquisitions

While the USMCA or CUSMA (as Canadians prefer to call it) remains in force (or for however long it remains in force), acquisitions of Canadian…

Read More >: (US) Buyers Beware: Canada’s New Economic Security Screen Will Keep out Predatory Acquisitions

“Country Risk” For Investors:  It’s Not Canada. It’s the United States.

In this upside down and volatile world investors now inhabit, it is the United States which astonishingly is starting to fail most benchmarks in country…

Read More >: “Country Risk” For Investors:  It’s Not Canada. It’s the United States.

Strategies for Canada in the New World Order

New language for the planet we’re on. The Fertile Crescent, the Ukraine’s wheat fields, the fractious Balkans, the Sudetenland. “Geography is destiny”. But Canada? Yes, for…

Read More >: Strategies for Canada in the New World Order

Reflections on Trudeau’s Departure and a Look Ahead

It is with some sadness that we should watch the end unfold. It is not, as some Opposition leaders have chosen to make it, a…

Read More >: Reflections on Trudeau’s Departure and a Look Ahead

Gladiator II:  Canada Confronts a Re-Elected Donald Trump. Let the Games Begin.

When he enters the arena on January 20th, 2025, an emboldened President Trump won’t need a net. The rest of us will.  He is spoiling…

Read More >: Gladiator II:  Canada Confronts a Re-Elected Donald Trump. Let the Games Begin.

Divorce NDP Style

The NDP decision to end their agreement to support the minority Liberal government (the “Supply and Confidence Agreement”) is more about political positioning for the…

Read More >: Divorce NDP Style