Where Do The Liberals Go From Here?

Political pundits are rarely at a loss for words. Yesterday’s unprecedented events in Ottawa could strike one dumb.  But we will take a stab, political knifing being in season, at saying something.

A Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister who, by her own admission, had lost the confidence of her Prime Minister, has resigned. But she has not gone quietly, as is the tradition in these matters. Instead, in a biting resignation letter, the now back-bench MP slams the door behind her, accusing the Prime Minister of being unserious in the face of a mounting existential challenge from the election of Donald Trump. Never mind that the “political gimmicks” she decries for distracting her government from addressing our challenges were developed and announced on her devoted watch. We may never know the full reasons for the falling out between the Prime Minister and his most senior Minister. Nonetheless, on her way out, Freeland framed a narrative that put her in the best light – expressing that she will not be part of a government that she believes is putting self interest above country.  Extraordinary.

Freeland says in sum, that the Emperor has no clothes, clothes in this case being a plan to address the serious challenges we face. Bravo and what many have been waiting to hear. One wonders after years of being his closest elected confidant and years in the most serious portfolios (Global Affairs, then Finance), whether she knew this all along, but stayed put hoping it was the best path to becoming Leader one day. Or did something specific happen? Regardless, we are where we are.

Losing one Finance Minister (Bill Morneau) is bad. Losing two is quite extraordinary. There will be repercussions in the financial markets and gleeful assessments of weakness and disarray from (we can’t believe we are saying this) Canada’s enemies in the United States.

There is no precedent in Canadian politics for what just happened. But there is precedent in Great Britain – Churchill’s break with Chamberlain after Chamberlain’s 1938 meeting with Hitler in Munich.  Churchill left the Government and ended up as Party Leader and Prime Minister in very short order.

Where do we go from here? The Liberal Party and Liberal Government are in shambles. There is a new Finance Minister – the PM’s life-long chum, Dominic LeBlanc. There are likely to be more departures (the loss of Minister of Housing Sean Fraser is unfortunate) as well as promotions, as yet unknown, from a shrinking contingent of scared incumbent MPs.

Parliament, which has been paralyzed for weeks, adjourns today for the Christmas break until the end of January. This will give the Liberals time to recharge (really?) and steady themselves, if that’s possible.  Policy initiatives, including those in the Fall Economic Statement just tabled will be subsumed in the on-going drama. On January 20, if you take Trump at his word, Canada will be severely tested. Many Canadians would be justified in the worry that their Government is not up to the challenge. An election, there must be one by next Fall, would clear the air.  But next Fall is a long way off and our challenges with the US won’t wait until then.

How did it end up this way for the Liberals – from “sunny ways” in 2015 to chaos in 2024?  It is ever thus.  Governments exhaust themselves and they exhaust the public. But the stakes have never been this high.  So, Canadians should hope that the Liberals under Justin Trudeau or some new Leader (???) can smarten up and toughen up – and fast. Or that they get out of the way.

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