It is with some sadness that we should watch the end unfold. It is not, as some Opposition leaders have chosen to make it, a time for celebration, an opportunity to sing the political equivalent of “Ding dong the witch is dead”. Shame on them. As they ought to know, or will learn in time, we are all politically dead at some point. Tempus Fugit.
How did it start with “sunny days” and end up here – a roiling revulsion of the person who in 2015 defined the optimism of a new generation of inclusive leadership?
There were policies that benefitted people and businesses, promoted innovation and investment, and funded infrastructure. There was steadfast leadership and much needed financial support mustered quickly during the greatest health crisis in a hundred years.
There were many missteps too, particularly fiscal for those who care about those things – all manner of rebates and payoffs (“gimmicks” the outgoing Finance Minister called them). Never mind that many of these payoffs would have made Ontario’s Conservative Premier proud. There was anger at housing costs and rising immigration seen to be exacerbating the shortage. There was deft political management (stick-handling of a Minority Government), but shocking internal political management failures (losing two Finance Ministers for instance).
The Prime Minister and his small team always seemed more comfortable with symbolism than strategy. His legacy will be, shall we say, mixed. And people tired of Trudeau.
The disdain so many express towards Trudeau is unprecedented and not entirely fair. That disdain and how it is expressed is a symptom of a particularly angry time. In 2025 our political leaders are targeted as they always are – for what they have done that we disagree with. They have also become a wall on which to project all our manner of pent-up frustrations, real and imagined, and the Opposition is happy to throw accelerant on the fire.
What has happened is also an age-old problem – that leaders often stay too long. That’s not surprising, given what it takes to have climbed the greasy pole. They have had to believe in their own inevitability. Those around them can’t, won’t or try, to speak truth to power, to their great frustration. Towards the end, “the Big Guy”, ” the Boss”, ” the Iron Lady” plead with empty rooms that only they can save the country, the Party, the vision. Some just can’t go quietly (enough) “into that dark night; but rage, rage, rage against the dying of the light”. Sometimes, a fortunate leader thinks themselves not as history’s co-author, but as the “Great Man” or “Great Woman” of politics (apologies Thomas Carlyle) capturing or defining a moment, a movement or an era, but nonetheless their dreams unravel, the parade passes by. They fall, always too soon as they see it, from the lofty heights where they have stood. It is ever thus.
Justin Trudeau may have obliterated the chance for a successor to put their stamp on the Liberal Party before being trounced at the polls. That he left the country effectively leaderless as Trump ascends will be judged harshly. Not that Canada’s principal Opposition Leader has used Trump’s threats to Canada as anything other than a politically opportune moment to attack the government.
With Trudeau gone we will soon find out to what extent his unpopularity was dragging down the Liberal Party. His departure had a positive effect on the markets and the value of the Canadian dollar. Optimists within the Liberal Party will hope that the Liberal brand endured below the surface (Liberal detractors would use the word “lurked”) and will be resurrected (or rise Frankenstein-like, opponents will warn). There is the worry in Liberal circles that Trudeau’s tenure squandered the Liberal brand, scattered its supporters with too many compromises on the left, too much spending to keep the centre-right voter in the tent.
There is a faint hope that the support for Conservative Leader Poilievre will soften when voters have a choice between him and someone whose name is not Trudeau. Liberals should be under no illusions. The road back from their near-death experience, no matter who the Leader may be, will be long and hard, and time is short. The best they might realistically hope for is to be the Official Opposition.
Here are some of the realities:
- The Prime Minister called for a “robust, competitive and national” leadership race. Whatever else it is, it will be short and scrappy. Veterans of leadership races know that the rules determine the race. Convention rules adopted by the Party may skew the race in one direction or the other.
- Coming so close to a likely election, the Leadership race will be part of the general election campaign. A new Leader won’t have to run on the Liberal Government’s record unless they were part of that Government.
- The new Parliamentary session on March 24th will open with a Speech from the Throne. Votes immediately following the Speech are matters of confidence that could lead to the fall of the government – and the triggering of an election – within days of Parliament’s return. This will leave a new Liberal Leader with barely any time to present their vision to the country.
- The Liberal Party has very little time to get ready for an election. Finding candidates across the country – at a time when it may not be clear who will be leading the Party into the election – will be tough. As will raising money for election campaigns immediately after passing the hat for leadership races. Staffing an election campaign may be challenging after what could be a bitter leadership contest. The Conservatives – who have had their eyes on the election prize for more than a year – are far ahead on all these measurables.
- With the prorogation of Parliament, any legislation that hadn’t passed dies. Some important initiatives will be lost, including measures to address online harms, cybersecurity and open banking. Although there are many who will welcome the fact that the announced change in the capital gains inclusion rate will not become law, even if the CRA has been proceeding as if it was.
- President-elect Trump takes office on January 20th. The current Canadian government, with a caretaker Prime Minister (dead but not gone) and focused on a leadership campaign, will be hard-pressed to offer a coherent strategy to deal with Trump.
And a word about the Opposition
The Opposition shouldn’t complain that Parliament has been prorogued. Afterall, their antics over the past few months made it impossible for Parliament to do the nation’s business. The attention of the press will now be on the Liberal Party and its leadership contenders, and not on Trudeau. The Opposition will have struggle to get a word in.
Canadians will get to know more about the Liberal leadership candidates in a short few weeks than they have learned about Pierre Poilievre in the past few years. Expect some Liberal leadership candidates to use the leadership campaign to take the fight directly to Poilievre. His silence and reticence has been a good tactic – “the basement strategy” it is called. But silence now is very risky, especially if the media finally starts to ask Poilievre tough questions. Liberal candidates will raise them and contrast his reserve with their ideas.