The NDP decision to end their agreement to support the minority Liberal government (the “Supply and Confidence Agreement”) is more about political positioning for the next election scheduled for October 2025 than about any immediate threat to the life of the current Parliament. While the media are having a field day with the NDP’s abrogation of the agreement, the reality of the past three years is that the Liberals and NDP negotiated on each major policy initiative. And, moving forward it looks like they will have to do the same, but now the NDP won’t be as constrained in what they say about their erstwhile governing partners.
Indeed, the video NDP leader Jagmeet Singh posted to announce the ‘marital dissolution’ looked like the kickoff for his 2025 fall election campaign. It’s slick and effective, attacking the Liberals as much as the Conservatives. But given polling that shows the Conservatives in a commanding electoral position, it’s unlikely that the NDP will pull the plug on the Liberal government any time soon. The NDP want to build a brand separate from the Liberals and they have given themselves a year to succeed.
As for the governing Liberals, there will be more chatter about the need for a new leader, but the ultimate decision is up to PM himself. Right now, he’s made it clear he has no intention of leaving. But then again, Joe Biden said the same.